Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 201.764289 247.231496 304.309997 382.693141 489.932252 6.352613e+02 8.540245e+02
2025-01-05 148.072351 198.661860 270.766223 385.793749 574.708100 8.938311e+02 1.530271e+03
2025-01-12 122.180402 174.491614 256.080504 401.815490 679.385050 1.249694e+03 2.760565e+03
2025-01-19 101.404813 151.069832 233.508681 393.290614 734.120450 1.557422e+03 4.400628e+03
2025-01-26 93.821420 146.138311 238.988659 436.139667 916.744609 2.343870e+03 9.625648e+03
2025-02-02 86.806303 140.309279 240.798412 471.998467 1110.106970 3.447550e+03 2.271314e+04
2025-02-09 80.298142 133.894587 239.553977 500.528207 1309.078045 4.977865e+03 6.108659e+04
2025-02-16 74.039105 126.686748 234.788449 518.717064 1495.724051 6.981002e+03 1.993400e+05
2025-02-23 68.391052 119.646436 228.680584 531.192981 1679.070327 9.689407e+03 1.020517e+06
2025-03-02 61.968839 110.046843 214.819394 516.810563 1746.474185 1.192225e+04 7.376588e+06
2025-03-09 56.496221 101.652755 202.175544 501.995265 1804.942320 1.457259e+04 1.213226e+09
2025-03-16 51.428888 93.474166 188.626654 480.149905 1815.218150 1.694511e+04 NaN
2025-03-23 50.635124 94.537201 198.391471 540.924885 2364.130672 3.555487e+04 NaN
2025-03-30 47.404472 89.814622 192.626333 546.201285 2604.936633 5.496991e+04 NaN
2025-04-06 45.277339 87.288488 192.154836 571.653194 3048.859374 1.073086e+05 NaN
2025-04-13 42.057801 81.839187 182.717246 558.131883 3173.604614 1.577043e+05 NaN
2025-04-20 41.643158 82.911171 191.743547 626.590038 4232.572867 7.170444e+05 NaN
2025-04-27 40.784749 82.791962 197.356459 684.710565 5451.411834 7.123196e+06 NaN
2025-05-04 39.618958 81.754213 200.010867 731.472435 6799.574009 1.152951e+10 NaN
2025-05-11 38.151277 79.767345 199.309225 761.519249 8116.468716 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 36.611478 77.413732 196.986170 782.232169 9468.671991 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 34.439055 73.179748 187.714567 758.361398 9738.013688 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 32.446254 69.245217 178.889409 733.889231 9945.255771 NaN NaN